Following notably disappointing Eurozone PMIs (specifically France and Germany) hitting 18-month lows, US PMIs printed better than expected, sending the US Composite back near its highest since Nov 2015.
Both US Services (3-month high) and US Manufacturing (44-month high) increased – rising more than expected – in the May preliminary print…
The latest increase in average input prices was the fastest since July 2013. Anecdotal evidence cited higher prices for metals and increased oil-related costs during the latest survey period.
Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:
“The flash May PMI surveys point to an encouragingly solid pace of economic growth of 2.5- 3% with monthly job gains running at just over 200,000, though the interesting action is coming on the prices front.
“Input costs measured across both manufacturing and services are rising at the fastest rate for nearly five years, with the goods-producing sector seeing the steepest cost increases for seven years in recent months.
“Furthermore, supplier delivery delays, a key forward-indicator of inflationary pressures, have risen to the highest seen in the 11 year survey history. Rising demand has stretched supply chains to the extent that suppliers are increasingly able to demand higher prices. At the same time, higher oil and energy prices are pushing up firms’ costs.
“Business optimism meanwhile remains at a threeyear high, with companies commonly expecting rising demand to help drive business growth, setting the scene for further strong survey results in coming months.”
So everything is awesome in ‘Murica… But, it appears the global synchronous recovery meme is done…
All of which leaves investors with a dilemma…Take your pick: higher inflation (rates higher) or margin pressure (lower PE multiple)